Do I Need a Model in Order to Win?
If you hang out around people who make MLB picks, then you might hear them utter the word “model.” They may talk about how their model spit out a certain result and how they are following their model to pick sides and totals. Do you need one of these models in order to win?
When you’re serious about doing MLB winning, then a model can help. A model is basically a statistically-driven system that helps to predict the outcomes of games. If that model is efficient at all, then it will pump out results that are better than what the general public can predict. People with good models can often hit soft lines early.
Even though it certainly helps to have one, one does not need a model in order to win. There are lots of people who get by with other handicapping methods. Some use stats but do not need a model. Others have a good gut feeling about games that is just uncanny. While many people in the betting world will argue that one cannot win simply with a gut feeling, others feel that it is entirely possible to win in this way.
If you are the kind of guy who can build a model, then it is a good idea. It is always good to have something to support your feelings on a given game. If you are not familiar with advanced math, don’t fret. Plenty of people win every year without having advanced models, so don’t freak out if you’re unable to tell a spread sheet from a sheet of glass.