If you want to know something about winning college football games or even throwing ducks in the NFL, then you’re best off talking to Tim Tebow. If you want to know something about picking NFL games, then you shouldn’t ask Tebow or any of the other talking heads at ESPN. Here are four things you’ll never hear out of those guys at ESPN.
1. One individual player doesn’t matter that much*
Do you see the asterisk on that headline? It’s because this rule does not apply to QBs. Quarterbacks matter, a lot. Other than QBs, though, not much else matters too much. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that the odd running back, corner, or safety is going to impact the outcome of a game too much. Most likely, those guys won’t change the outcome of the game by more than a point over the long run.
2. The best team doesn’t always win
Football is situational, so NFL picks must be situational, too. What does this mean? it means that you have to consider more than just who is better than who. You also have to consider the environment the game will take place in. Is one team tired from a Monday night game? Does one team need the game more than another? These things are very important.
3. Coaches matter a lot
With all of the talk about individual players, we sometimes forget to include coaches in our handicapping. Coaches can influence the outcome of a game much more than coaches in most cases. Remember this when you’re trying to make the right picks each year.
4. NFL teams sometimes quit
At the end of a football season, some teams will have absolutely quit. They will have surrendered because they hate their coach or they don’t have a chance. Find those quitting teams and bet against them. You won’t be sorry.