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download (11)If you are trying to put together your NBA picks, then you probably have some vague idea that each player is worth a certain amount. Take Paul George, for instance. He is worth a distinct amount to his team, and that amount should be reflected, at least in part, by the line that you get at your sportsbook. But how much does one player matter? Is one player enough to shift the line a few points? The answer is that it depends.

In general, one player is only worth a few points at most. Even though LeBron James is probably the best player alive, his absence will only cost the Heat a few points according to the line. With that knowledge in tow, your job as a person making NBA picks is to figure out those times when the line might be off.

One question that you have to ask yourself is how much better a player like James or George makes his teammates. While it is probably true that teams are deep enough to replace a player in a one-game setting, if the team loses some of its effectiveness without the player, then the effect may be compounded. As you make your NBA picks, do not overvalue the presence of a single player, but keep in mind that all situations demand a different kind of analysis. The betting public will, in general, overvalue the contributions of single players, so if you can keep your head straight, you have a chance to find some value with NBA picks in these situations.