As an NFL handicapper, you should always be willing to listen when someone offers to give a money-making tip. While not all people are capable of giving good advice, there is no reason to not consider a new opinion. With that in mind, here are three things that you should probably know going forward.
1. Eye the Public
You should almost always keep your eye on the public. What is the public doing with its betting trend? Is 90-percent on the favorite? Are most people backing a road underdog? Is someone saying that the under is a “stone cold lock?” When you start hearing these things, you should think about going the other way. When the public is sure of itself, the books start to drool over the possibility of big profits.
2. Bet Early or Bet Late
There are two ways to make money – bet early before the lines have a chance to settle or bet late when you have fuller information. The people who get burned are those who fail to bet during one of these times. Late bettors have a particular advantage of watching how the books have adjusted their line. This can tell you a lot about how the book feels about a certain game.
3. One Player Matters, But Not Much
Don’t fall into the common trap of valuing one player too highly. Sure, a starting QB can make a huge difference in the outcome, but other than that position, a single player will not matter much. A smart bettor will make NFL picks understanding this important fact. One player matters, but not nearly as much as you think.