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Four Things Tim Tebow Won't Be Able to Tell You About NFL HandicappingIf you want to know something about winning college football games or even throwing ducks in the NFL, then you’re best off talking to Tim Tebow. If you want to know something about picking NFL games, then you shouldn’t ask Tebow or any of the other talking heads at ESPN. Here are four things you’ll never hear out of those guys at ESPN.

1. One individual player doesn’t matter that much*

Do you see the asterisk on that headline? It’s because this rule does not apply to QBs. Quarterbacks matter, a lot. Other than QBs, though, not much else matters too much. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that the odd running back, corner, or safety is going to impact the outcome of a game too much. Most likely, those guys won’t change the outcome of the game by more than a point over the long run.   Read More…

2014 NFL Team Preview: Dallas Cowboys and a Chance to Find Value?There often come times when a team has been beat on so bad by the media and the public that the team goes from being overrated to being underrated. Dallas has long been one of the most overrated teams in football, just because so many people bet with their hearts rather than their heads. This year, though, it seems as if everyone has written off the Cowboys, and this might provide the right opportunity for NFL bettors to pounce with some well-timed NFL picks.

The Cowboys have lost key pieces on defense, including DeMarcus Ware, who is gone to Denver to rush QBs in the AFC. In addition, they lost top linebacker Sean Lee to an injury during the offseason. These things will be difficult to overcome, but Dallas still has some talent in the front seven. The team got killed last year in the secondary, but they seem to have cleaned things up a little bit back there for 2014. This could be an improved unit, which is not saying too much given just how porous the defense was a year ago. Read More…

2014 NFL Season: Teams That Might Backtrack

The NFL’s season is a pendulum. From year to year, teams go from good to bad, and sometimes it’s easier to predict than other times. At times, it can seem as if the NFL is a random chance league, where teams exist off of luck and luck alone. This is not really the case, though. If we dig into the data and take a hard look at some of the trends, then it becomes apparent which teams are likely to lose some of their momentum heading into the new season.

The Carolina Panthers seem like a good pick to backtrack some. They made great strides one year ago, winning their division and securing a playoff bye. The Panthers probably should have won their playoff game, as well, but were felled by bad luck against San Francisco. This year, they are having to replace their entire wide receiving corps. Cam Newton is coming off of an injury, as well, which will probably make things difficult. The defense is still solid, so this will keep the Panthers in the hunt, but as a bettor, you might be able to find value fading the Panthers this season. Read More…

If you are like most people who make NFL picks, then you have been watching the NFL’s preseason with baited breath. Perhaps you have spent time studying depth charts. Maybe you’ve just been looking forward to watching Johnny Manziel

NFL Handicappingplay for those miserable Browns. Whatever the case, you need to know whether there is anything you can pull out of the NFL preseason that might ultimately help you make solid NFL picks once the season actually begins.

Are Guys Healthy?

One of the best pieces of information you can pull out of the preseason is knowledge on just how healthy guys seem to be. Watch a couple of games and decide for yourself if you’re looking at a truly healthy superstar. In some cases, you will be able to gain information that might be useful to you in week number one of the regular season.  Read More…

Do I Need a Model in Order to Win?

Do I Need a Model in Order to Win?

If you hang out around people who make MLB picks, then you might hear them utter the word “model.” They may talk about how their model spit out a certain result and how they are following their model to pick sides and totals. Do you need one of these models in order to win?

When you’re serious about doing MLB winning, then a model can help. A model is basically a statistically-driven system that helps to predict the outcomes of games. If that model is efficient at all, then it will pump out results that are better than what the general public can predict. People with good models can often hit soft lines early. Read More…

MLB Handicapping: The Factors That Affect Totals

MLB Handicapping: Three Little Known House Rules To Know


If you are going to bet on MLB totals, then you need to know which factors have a huge influence on the success of your bets. Generally speaking, MLB totals are set based upon a few critical factors. The following are the things to analyze when making these MLB picks.

The Pitchers

Nothing is more important to a baseball total than the starting pitchers for each team. Good starting pitchers will command totals in the 6s. Bad ones will command totals in the 9s or 10s, depending upon other factors. When you bet totals, you need to know what you are dealing with and you need to have a good idea of a pitcher’s expected performance. Read More…

MLB Handicapping: Three Little Known House Rules To Know

MLB Handicapping: Three Little Known House Rules To Know


As you make MLB picks this year, you need to know about more than just the games. You also need to know the rules where you are making your bets. While different sports betting outlets will be different with their rules, there are some general rules that remain mostly the same. Here are three that most people don’t know.

Suspended Games Equal a Push

At most books, if a game is suspended to be finished at a later date, you will receive a push no matter what you bet. This means that if you bet the over with a total of 7 and the game is sitting at 8-8 in the bottom of the 7th inning and a game gets delayed by rain, you will get your money back and you won’t win the bet. In most cases, if one team is winning, this will not matter because the game will be called. If the game is tied, though, it may be suspended and completed on another day.

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March Madness Picking: Three Mistakes to AvoidAs a March Madness handicapper, you should be well-aware that there are certain pitfalls out there just waiting for you. It is possible to win good money betting on March Madness, but you have to be crafty and careful when making your selections. With that in mind, here are three critical mistakes that you must avoid in order to find long-term success.

Don’t follow the herd

Herd mentality in March Madness picks will crush you. Be willing to go the other way if you have the opportunity to do so. Make sure that you are thinking critically and not just following the conventional wisdom on a given game, as the conventional wisdom can be quite poor at times

Don’t bet all favorites

Points matter in the tournament, and underdogs are often there to give you good value. Just like in the regular season, you will lose if you focus only on the favorites. Try to inform yourself on some of the lesser known teams so that you will be more comfortable making bets on those teams as the tournament draws near. Read More…

March Madness Picks: The Anatomy of a Championship TeamOne of the goals for many people when they do their March Madness betting is to identify the champion. This makes sense because you can make a lot of money in a lot of different ways when you ID the right team. You could win your pools by picking the champ, and you can even place futures bets on the champion of the tournament. With that in mind, it might make some sense to identify those factors that usually lead to success in March Madness.

Most championship teams have a combination of good offense and good defense. This might seem intuitive, but it is important to recognize that some teams are only good at one or the other. In the tournament, you need both of these things. Some nights, the shots will not fall, so a team without a defense will have trouble hanging around. Look for teams that have demonstrated good play on both sides of the ball. Read More…

March Madness Picks: A Guide to Betting FuturesAs you make March Madness picks this year, you may target futures. You might be looking for ways to make good bets on various teams to win it all. This is a fun way to bet because if you win, you could be looking at a nice payday. There are some rules that you need to think about so that you can maximize this type of betting.

First, make sure that you are willing to pick a mix of teams. It is very difficult to pinpoint the one team in the field that will win. You will be better off by picking a few different teams and spreading your money around. This might mean taking a top seed that you like, a middling seed that you like, and the long shot that you think has a chance to make a run.

You should also look at how the bracket impacts a team’s ability to make it to the Final Four. Good teams often get put into difficult brackets. When this happens, it will not matter how good that team is. You want to have the best chance to win, and the best chance comes from betting on a team that will have an easier time getting deep into the tournament. With that in mind, pick those teams that have an easier road.  By doing this, you will have an opportunity to cash in more value with your team not having to struggle so much. Read More…