Online Now
Picks Today
Lifetime Cash-Outs $

43 messages - 2085 views Rules
User Message

Ok. Taking a little break until baseball starts. Hit a few rough patches (finally) and I am currently at 60.18 after some recent wins. Crazy to say that I am really disappointed that I only increased my bankroll by 33% this year. That's a good thing, but I really did expect, at a minimum, to double the 45 and at the high end to increase the unit base wager to .40 or even .50 cents and get into the high 100s.

So, here is why I "only" won about 45 units this year. First off, I am an impatient, greedy idiot who gets angry (really angry) and frustrated very easily (very, very easily). Second, well, that first part is really my only problem. What it leads to, is trying too hard, not sticking with what I know will work, bending the rules, forcing plays that I should objectively be passing on, and thinking that I can will teams to a victory just by clicking extra hard on the Finalize Wager button.

As always, no matter what you do, it is still gambling and you can ruin a bunch of smart moves with just one dumb one. Or a whole season of smart moves with just a few angry dumb ones.

So, like I said, taking a break until baseball, going to cool it off awhile, and hope I can keep a cool head all year. In 2019 I made 19.39 on baseball, then I spent the fall and winter getting too full of myself and thinking I could win no matter what I did, rather than staying within the bag of marbles concept(s) and wound up roughly breaking even. (Which, honestly, isn't bad, but it also isn't useful...unless you keep sandwiching it with periods of racking up units.

So, I will be back in late March, and I will go into the year with less hype, no giant promises (because falling a little short of those promises, helped fuel the anger, then the stupid actions, and more falling short and more anger and more stupid... well you see the spiralling out of control pattern that I at least managed to halt near the middle of January.) BUT, I will say this. I expect to do better in the fall of 2020 than last year. Baseball should be OK, the other sports should show a profit, too. It might be fewer bets, but in a "less is more" way, it should lead to a decent bankroll increase by this time or so next year.


Ok, I just saw that the last message started a new page (30 must be the magic number) so here is a quick recap of what this is about--or you can read post number one in full.

I feel like I have finally found something that will work for me (and you, too) in the long run. I am calling it the Bag of Marbles concept (because once you get it, you will be as happy as a kid with a bag of marbles).

You can see a few details in this one minute youtube video here....

Spoiler, it's twenty bucks. But it does come with a money back guarantee if you don't win your first season (or any season), but once you see this concept--what I am calling the Bag of Marbles concept--you'll know you won't need a refund. It is that strong.

You can buy it here.... if you are ready to start winning right along with me this baseball season. Or you can wait until I run up my balance with legit bets, and then get in.

If you have any questions, you can message me via facebook, (search bag of marbles), or get my email off the ecwid page. Probably the email way is best. You can also message me here, but I really will be taking a break until baseball starts, so yeah, fb or email. Skype would be an option too, if you get in touch, but have a lot of questions, sometimes just yapping back and forth for ten minutes is better than a dozen emails.


Just a couple of short notes. As you may have noticed, I have stopped betting on soccer here (though I did toss in yet another win with Liverpool, still a huge value there it seems, they're what 22-1 and you can lay -300 or so most games? What?) for several reasons, the fact that games are sometimes not listed, and that on the weekend you have to wait for tons of games to start before your game is in the top 200 of next games (I usually bet the whole weekend on Friday, but here I have to keep coming back every so often for the next window of games) and, of course, the new one bet at a time rule, but mostly because I sometimes prefer to take another half goal and lay odds and that isn't always an option here. SP indicates I am up 7.68 (on about 400 bets) over the last year on soccer, so I think that makes its point.

The other note is that I did back up the date on the "in case I die" video. So it is now set to release about feb 23 of 2021. Again, not expecting to die, but you never know (as we saw last month, right?) so, it's like a little insurance for us all.

Man, the days are going to pass so slowly until baseball gets here.

Oh, yeah, rambling on now, I almost wanted to stay and keep betting against the Red Wings awhile longer, when a team is losing 75 percent of their games and almost never is -300 to bet against them, it is such a value, sometimes it lasts awhile in hockey where the bookmaker can be slow to catch on, but after seeing that C-bus line yesterday, looks like I got out right as they were about to jack it up to where it should have been weeks ago.

That's it again.


Good luck with baseball season this year.


I won't have to "take a chance, take a chance" on luck. And you spelled ABBA wrong!

But seriously, the soccer game between Real Salt Lake and the NYRB is a perfect example of what I was talking about earlier. You could only bet -0.5 goals and take a +134 money line here, whereas I laid -139 and 0.0 goals. 1-1 final meant I got a push, while it would have been a loss here. Stuff like that adds up!

Guess I should have stuck with those 'vs. the Wings' bets, what a losing factory all Detroit teams have become. If they gave a trophy to the team to put up the best record every year--starting with baseball season--the Tigers .292 would be second to the pistons .313 right now. If the pistons can't get four wins in their last 18, the Tigers would get the trophy. So sad. So very sad.


I wish I could find a way to win you betcha!!!!!!! smiley


xgo--second person to post they wish they could win.... and can't see the answer is right here.

I am not going to be the guy to say "Oh, it sucks that I can't bet." I'll just say, whenever the games start again, I'll get back to winning again. Hopefully it will be soon, for the world's sake. Until then, I am going to wash my hands and treat everyone like a defender that needs to be dodged.

Best of health to everyone, hopefully talk again in April.


eclare myself done here. (I had hoped to go sportsbook cashout at the eighty or so mark, but since I took SP up on there get 50 for opening a real account offer and didn't get the 50--despite half


Still waiting for the majority of sports to come back. At least there are some small positive signs in the news these days. Making some small plays on the KBO while I wait (see the thread in baseball picks). Just bumping this up to the top, as a random post fest pushed it all the way to page two!


Well, good news! I am going to start betting soccer here for awhile. I don't know if I will be betting the mini post covid games in the nba or nhl, and baseball will be over before it starts at this rate. Plus, with next season starting late for almost everyone, it could be about Thanksgiving before I get a bet in.
Also nice that I can do five at a time if needed, but the issue of being able to find them all in the first 200 will still be a challenge. At least while I keep posting the KBO thread I will be coming back almost every day anyway.

So, 60.18 and hoping to push it up a few bucks!


Well, despite some renewed enthusiasm in that last post, I still managed to fall back into the same trying too hard to do too much too fast problems that I had before. And all the anger and stupidity that I usually give in to as well.

2020 has surely been a ****tier year for some than it has for me. But I went from being amped up for baseball and getting this back on track in late March, to having 2/3 of the season lost, and then tried to ignore that and just bet way too much on too many questionable games--trying to mix in some handicapping to what I already know can work on its own--and just blew things up again.

When I had this idea, really felt it would work, and then started this thread, my goal was simple: get to 200 as fast as possible, impress everyone, make some sales, and be done with this site. (Ok, it was kind of simple.) But like I said before, I tried to do too much, too fast, and ended up spoiling things. So, after turning what should have been a small win (like 15-20 units for the season if I had just stayed within the bag of marbles concept) in baseball into yet another overdid it disaster, I have taken some time to think about what I really want to accomplish here.

I've decided to shift my focus slightly, and just put up some decent winning seasons of about 30 units or so, call it about 10 bucks. And then take some short breaks from the site if I hit the goal midseason and there is no other sport going. I'm in the mid-thirties now and down a bit on soccer, so I think there is a chance to rally it back to 50 by the end of the year. Going to play that by ear a bit. But after that, really thinking I just can put up that ten bucks each on NHL, NBA, MLB and soccer each year, even if it takes 4 years to get to 200, at least I will get there. Aiming for the middle of what I think I can win should take some pressure off and let me just walk down the path to success instead of careening wildly all over it and occasionally off it into a lava pit or video game nothingness.

So, we'll see. One season at a time, I try to tell myself I won't win it all in a few bets, or a week or a month, patience is the key. I have to learn to be patient. Of course, then I reply to myself, "Well, how fast can I learn this patience thing?"

It's hard. Gambling's hard. This year's been hard. Hang in there, it is going to get better. --Dan


No time to read it all...........


no time to read it all.......................