Player Awards Betting: How to Approach & Strategy Options

Sports are unpredictable. Regardless of what anyone says about nailed-on outcomes, they can always throw up surprises. From last-minute turnarounds in a game to underdogs defying the expectations across a season, there is always something to surprise you and something that makes the predictions look foolish. That’s the nature of sports and sports betting, and it will never change.

Yet, if we were to highlight betting markets that do not usually suffer from the ebbs and flows that characterize sporting events, nor the hand of providence, it would be player award betting – MVPs, Ballon d’Ors, etc. They are much more predictable than, say, props betting on a particular game or betting on the winner of a championship. Of course, there are a few caveats to be aware of.

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SGA NBA MVP Award was nailed on

First, consider how player awards betting can be predictable. In the NBA this season, we saw Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA MVP betting markets for the regular season, basically since the Oklahoma City Thunder came out red-hot in October. It was a cast-iron certainty; if the voting went any other way, it would have been considered a scandal. SGA got the nod, and anyone who backed him in the markets got their reward.

Now, to the caveats. First, when it became abundantly clear that SGA was going to win, his odds became short – very short – to such an extent that it started to get attractive to back a shock winner, like Nikola Jokic or Giannis Antetokounmpo, who ended up coming second and third respectively. Still, if you held your nerve, you would have profited on SGA.

The second caveat is somewhat more complex. Effectively, sportsbooks don’t like these markets where a vote decides the outcome. They are almost treated like novelty bets – betting on pro wrestling events, the Oscars, elections, etc. As such, they may limit the maximum wager that can be placed on these markets (not always), or they may not allow the bets to be combined into a parlay.

Not all player awards markets are predictable.

Of course, not every awards market is as predictable as SGA in 2025. From Steve Nash to Derrick Rose, many NBA players upset the betting markets to win when everyone thought the MVP award was going elsewhere. In the NFL, too, we had years with winners like Adrian Peterson shocking everyone.

This year’s Ballon d’Or poses a different kind of conundrum, as it pits two players who are almost neck and neck in the odds, Ousmane Dembele (the slight favorite) and Lamine Yamal. Moreover, you should not rule out Liverpool’s marksman, Mohamed Salah. Things could change over the coming months before the voting occurs, but it looks like a tricky market.

How, then, should you approach player awards betting? There are several ways to go about it and a few pitfalls. The first advice is to be cautious about betting too far in the future. You might love the idea of SGA repeating in the 2025/26 season, but what if he gets injured? Secondly, on a more positive note, you should shop around to see how different sportsbooks approach the market. Remember, unlike sporting contests, player awards are based on the opinion of voter sentiment, and that can vary widely. We mentioned Mo Salah as having a chance of winning the Ballon d’Or, and looking across different sportsbooks; you can find odds ranging from +700 to +2500. That’s a huge odds differential you would not find in regular props betting.

Overall, player awards markets are both tricky and easy to navigate. That might seem contradictory, but it depends on the given year and how the markets react to each player’s chances. Some years, like SGA’s win this season, it’s a no-brainer, and the only question is what price you can get. Other years, it’s not so simple. Be aware that there can be even controversial shocks, but if you see the right price for the right athlete, it could be worth going for.

I (AKA CatBurg) have a lifelong passion for sports, especially football and basketball. I enjoy the thrill and excitement of sports betting and everything in between. My teams are (Packers #GoPackGo) and who I am betting on!