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NFL Handicapping: How Much Do Penalties Matter?

NFL Handicapping: How Much Do Penalties Matter?

 

One of the most difficult tasks for any handicapper is determining how much various stats matter. When you begin making your NFL picks, you have lots of different pieces of data that you can sift through. What about yard totals? What do you make of a team’s completion percentage? Somewhere in there, you will likely encounter a team’s penalty statistics. Is this something that you should focus on or is this something that you can take with a grain of salt?

The first thing to understand is that for NFL teams, penalty numbers are predictive. This means that you can largely expect a team to commit a certain number of penalties based upon what they have done earlier in the year. Certain other stats, including fumbles, are not so predictive. They happen based upon random chance, and if you put too much emphasis on them, you will fail with your NFL picks. Penalties are different, though, so if you see a team that has committed a number of penalties during the early part of the year, then you can bet that this will continue later in the year.

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College Basketball Handicapping: Who is the Favorite?

College Basketball Handicapping: Who is the Favorite?

 

As you prepare to make those college basketball bets this season, you will need to ask yourself a critical question – who is the best team in the country now and who is going to cut down the nets when it is all said and done in March? Oddly, these two questions likely have two different answers. Right now, the best team in the country is probably Michigan State. Sparty returns almost everyone off of a team that very nearly reached the Final Four one season ago. They have arguably the best player in the Big Ten in Gary Harris, and with Payne in the middle, they have a shot-blocking presence. Michigan State has experience and continuity, and they play together better than almost any other team.Later in the year, things are going to change a bit.

There are some teams right now that are very raw, including Kentucky and Kansas. These teams have dynamic young players that are going to make an impact in the later months of the season. The problem for these teams is that they have not meshed well together just yet. The ceiling is very high, though. Read More…

College Basketball Handicapping

 

If you’re going to be a strong college basketball bettor, then you need to know how to navigate end of game situations. You need to know about important critical numbers and also how different teams deal with the pressure that comes at the end of the game. College basketball is a sport where things often get wacky at the end. What teams can you expect to hold onto those late leads while still covering the spread, saving you money and frustration?

Look for teams with good free throw shooting. More than that, you will want a team with one or two good free throw shooting guards. These players will be counted on to bury free throws late in the game. If they fail to do so, you may end up watching one of your wins slip away as the opponents makes a late run fueled by continual misses. Read More…

 NFL Tips: On New Orleans and a Tough Trip

If you want to talk about two of the toughest tasks in the NFL over the last few years, you have to look on two different sides of the map. Going to Seattle to win has been hard for everyone for a few years. Likewise, going into Foxboro to win on a Monday night has been very tough in its own right. Now, the Saints look to go to New England to take on a Patriots team that looks like it might have finally found itself a little bit.

The Saints have a strong offense, and with Sean Payton on the sideline again, they look poised to make a run at the NFC title. The big issue, it seems, is that New Orleans has been struggling a little bit on defense. Though they have gotten results to this point, the New Orleans defense has given up a large number of yards. Eventually, you have to think that teams are going to start turning drives into points.

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This week, something spectacular will happen in Denver. The Broncos will tangle with a Jacksonville team that has been really bad this year. Anyone making NFL picks this year should know good and well that Denver’s been awesome and the Jaguars have been historically bad. After all, Jacksonville was a double-digit underdog last week at St. Louis against a Rams team that hasn’t shown any life this year. What’s worse? The Jaguars failed to cover that huge number.  Read More…

When you looked at the schedule in the early part of the year, you might have seen this particular game as a potential Superbowl preview. The Packers heading into Baltimore to take on the Ravens is the kind of game that can get NFL pickers excited. So what do we think will happen in this one? Can Green Bay get a big win and push toward a nice place near the top of the NFC North? Can Baltimore continue to play well and try to back up its Superbowl win with a solid season? These are the big questions.
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The Steelers have lost four to start the year, if you’re serious about making NFL picks, you’re probably asking a very obvious question. Is this Pittsburgh team redeemable? Are they going to at least turn the ship around a little bit and fight for an 8-8 season? That’s a fair question to ask, and Pittsburgh hasn’t done much to instill any confidence to this point. They’re going to New York this week to face off against the Jets, so there is some opportunity to get a big win.  Read More…

To say that the Panthers have been disappointing this season would be a major understatement. There are groups rallying around the idea of running Ron Rivera out of town, and the Panthers continue to lose in the most excruciating ways possible. Many Panthers fans believe that the team should be 3-1 at worst, but here they are, taking to the road against a Minnesota team that’s had its own struggles. The Panthers are slight underdogs in this one, so what is going to happen when they head up to the dome?

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